看到有人轉載這篇,我決定全文翻譯一下.
原始出處:
http://www.economist.com/news/21566414-alternative-energy-will-no-longer-be-alternative-sunny-uplands
Rebranding is always a tricky exercise, but for one field of technology 2013 will be the year when its proponents need to bite the bullet and do it. That field is alternative energy. The word “alternative”, with its connotations of hand-wringing greenery and a need for taxpayer subsidy, has to go. And in 2013 it will. “Renewable” power will start to be seen as normal.
形象重塑總是非常難以捉摸的，但是在某個科技領域中，2013年將會是其支持者必須硬著頭皮去嘗試重新定位的一年。這個領域就是所謂的替代能源。「替代」這個詞彙，和其所帶有的激進環保色彩及納稅補貼，必須被拋棄。「可再生」能源將會成為常態。
Wind farms already provide 2% of the world’s electricity, and their capacity is doubling every three years. If that growth rate is maintained, wind power will overtake nuclear’s contribution to the world’s energy accounts in about a decade. Though it still has its opponents, wind is thus already a grown-up technology. But it is in the field of solar energy, currently only a quarter of a percent of the planet’s electricity supply, but which grew 86% last year, that the biggest shift of attitude will be seen, for sunlight has the potential to disrupt the electricity market completely.
風力發電已經佔了世界發電量的百分之二，而且其發電量每三年就增加一倍。如果能夠保持這樣的成長率，風力發電將會在十年之內取代核能發電的地位。儘管風力發電有其反對者，風力已經是個成熟的技術了。但重點是到太陽能－目前僅共應全球0.25%的發電量，但是去年就成長了百分之八十六－將會帶動史上最大的觀念改變，太陽能擁有完全顛覆電力市場的潛能。
The underlying cause of this disruption is a phenomenon that solar’s supporters call Swanson’s law, in imitation of Moore’s law of transistor cost. Moore’s law suggests that the size of transistors (and also their cost) halves every 18 months or so. Swanson’s law, named after Richard Swanson, the founder of SunPower, a big American solar-cell manufacturer, suggests that the cost of the photovoltaic cells needed to generate solar power falls by 20% with each doubling of global manufacturing capacity. The upshot (see chart) is that the modules used to make solar-power plants now cost less than a dollar per watt of capacity. Power-station construction costs can add $4 to that, but these, too, are falling as builders work out how to do the job better. And running a solar power station is cheap because the fuel is free.
能夠顛覆的關鍵在於一個現象，太陽能稱其為史汪森定律，就如同電晶體的摩爾定律一般。摩爾定律指出，電晶體的尺寸（和成本）每十八個月左右就會折半。史汪森定律，以理查史汪森，美國大型太陽能電池製造商SunPower的創辦人為名，指出太陽能電池的成本將會隨著全球產能加倍而下跌20%。結果（請見原網址圖）是現在太陽能發電模組現在每瓦特的成本低於一美元。發電廠的蓋廠成本，目前需另加四美元每瓦特，但是也不斷地隨著營造廠技術改良而下滑。另外太陽能電廠的營運成本也更低，因為根本不需要燃料。
Coal-fired plants, for comparison, cost about $3 a watt to build in the United States, and natural-gas plants cost $1. But that is before the fuel to run them is bought. In sunny regions such as California, then, photovoltaic power could already compete without subsidy with the more expensive parts of the traditional power market, such as the natural-gas-fired “peaker” plants kept on stand-by to meet surges in demand. Moreover, technological developments that have been proved in the laboratory but have not yet moved into the factory mean Swanson’s law still has many years to run.
相較之下，燃煤火力發電廠在美國的成本是每瓦特三美元，天然氣電廠則是每瓦特一美元。但這是扣除燃料成本的價格。在陽光充足的地區如加州，太陽能發電已經能夠無補貼的和某些傳統發電較為昂貴的部分競爭，像是為應付用電巔峰期的備用天然氣火力電廠。此外，實驗室裡尚有還沒被應用在工廠裡的技術突破，這意味著史汪森定律還可以維持非常多年。
Comparing the cost of wind and solar power with that of coal- and gas-fired electricity generation is more than just a matter of comparing the costs of the plant and the fuel, of course. Reliability of supply is a crucial factor, for the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow. But the problem of reliability is the subject of intensive research. Many organisations, both academic and commercial, are working on ways to store electricity when it is in surplus, so that it can be used when it is scarce.
把風力和太陽能發電的成本和燃煤、天然氣火力發電做比較，當然不僅僅止於建廠和燃料的成本比較。電力供應的可靠度也是非常關鍵的因素，尤其是太陽並非總是有日照、風也非隨時吹。但是可靠度的問題已經成為大力研究的重點。許多組織，不論是學術導向或是商業導向，正在努力朝著靠電力盈餘儲備電力以供短缺時利用的方向發展。
Progress is particularly likely during 2013 in the field of flow batteries. These devices, hybrids between traditional batteries and fuel cells, use liquid electrolytes, often made from cheap materials such as iron, to squirrel away huge amounts of energy in chemical form. “Grid-scale” storage of this or some other sort is the second way, after Swanson’s law, that the economics of renewable energy will be transformed.
2013年很有可能會有電池科技上的突破。包括傳統電池和燃料電池的混合，運用液態電解，通常用低廉的材料如鋼打造,可將大量的能源轉為化學能的型態儲存。除了史汪森定律之外，這種大量能源儲存的技術正是再生能源的經濟效益改變的第二個關鍵。
One consequence of all this progress is that subsidies for wind and solar power have fallen over recent years. In 2013, they will fall further. Though subsidies will not disappear entirely, the so-called alternatives will be seen to stand on their own feet in a way that was not true in the past. That will give them political clout and lead to questions about the subventions which more traditional forms of power generation enjoy (coal production, for example, is heavily subsidised in parts of Europe).
以上的進展所帶來的改變，其中一個就是太陽能和風力發電的政府補貼已經逐年下降。在2013年,補貼會下降得更多。儘管政府補貼不會完全消失，但所謂的替代能源將會前所未見的站穩腳根。這將會為替代能源帶來政治上的影響力並使人們對於傳統電力所享有的補貼提出疑問。（例如說採礦就在歐洲某些地區受到重度補貼）
Fossil-fuel-powered electricity will not be pushed aside quickly. Fracking, a technological breakthrough which enables natural gas to be extracted cheaply from shale, means that gas-fired power stations, which already produce a fifth of the world’s electricity, will keep the pressure on wind and solar to get better still. But even if natural gas were free, no Swanson’s law-like process applies to the plant required to turn it into electricity. Nuclear power is not a realistic alternative. It is too unpopular and the capital costs are huge. And coal’s days seem numbered. In America, the share of electricity generated from coal has fallen from almost 80% in the mid-1980s to less than a third in April 2012, and coal-fired power stations are closing in droves.
石油燃料發電並不會很快地被放棄。Fracking，一種用於低價開採頁岩天然氣的科技突破，意味著目前已佔世界發電量五分之一的天然氣火力發電廠，將會持續給風力及太陽能發電帶來競爭壓力。但是就算天然氣的價格下降到免費，天然氣發電也沒有類似史汪森定律的發展。核能發電也不能被稱為真正的替代能源。核能發電太不受歡迎且其資本投入過於龐大。而煤的儲存量眼見將要不足。在美國，燃煤火力發電的比重已經從八零年代中期接近百分之八十的比例跌至2012四月的低於三分之一，而且燃煤火力發電廠正在大量關閉。
It may take longer to make the change in China and India, where demand for power is growing almost insatiably, and where the grids to take that power from windy and sunny places to the cities are less developed than in rich countries. In the end, though, they too will change as the alternatives become normal, and what was once normal becomes quaintly old-fashioned.
在中國和印度也許需要比較長的時間才會開始改變，這兩國的能源需求成長無法滿足，而且其城市中風力和太陽能的發電裝置普及率也不如較富裕的國家。然而，他們始終也會切換的，一旦替代能源成為常態，而過去的常態成為過時。
Geoffrey Carr: science editor, The Economist
From The World In 2013 print edition
